With the Iowa caucus coming up this January 3rd I thought it would be prudent to look at the upcoming election and make some general predictions in the race for President. This will be from an amalgamation of information that I have read over or gotten through other media sources (news networks, political websites, ect.) so I will try and make it as smooth flowing as I can. I will first do a brief recap of the last major federal election cycle of 2010. In the Senate the Republican Party gained 6 seats which the Democrats lost and in the House of Representatives the Republican Party gained 63 seats which the Democrats lost. A driving force behind these gains by the Republicans was the “Tea Party” a sort of splinter group of the Republican Party which has the desired goal of reducing government spending and reducing the taxation of and power of the Federal Government. The Tea Party has shown an impressive ability to raise money for the candidates that it supports; one of its candidates Michele Bachmann raised some $10 million for her political action committee. Since the elections in 2010 there have been a few special elections with both parties breaking about even.
For the 2012 election I suspect there will be the main issue. I will go out on a limb and say that the most important issue will be the economy. While the United States has had 9 quarters of GDP growth that growth has been quite modest and many people do not feel that there has been actual growth. Maybe it because in the latest unemployment report there shows a 9.1% national unemployment rate (this doesn’t even count people who have stopped looking for work or are now part time instead of the full time that they had before the strike of the “great recession”) or maybe it’s because of increasing costs of food and other goods (with food rising an average of 3.5-4.5%according to the USDA). No matter what the reason the economy is still well on people’s minds, so it will most likely be a deciding factor of the upcoming election.
Now that I have covered what I think will be the main issue for 2012 I will analyze the Presidential candidates and give my thoughts on how they are going to fair.
Democrats
President Barack Obama
Pros:
He is the only candidate for the Democratic Party and since they don’t look like they are going to have a primary he has already won that. This makes it so that he only has to spend his campaign money against the Republican candidate where the Republican candidates have to spend money to win the primary election to even run against Obama. And when it comes to fundraising for his campaign Obama is still very good having raised some $86 million this year alone which is more than twice of Romney’s funds. Lastly, Obama is an excellent orator being able to give great speeches and run effective campaign events.
Cons:
First off, there is his slogan from 2008 of “change we can believe in” since there has been negligible change in “the way that Washington works” he didn’t really bring that change which may upset his 08 supporters. Then there are some of his campaign promises such as Close the Guantanamo Bay Detention Center and repealing the Bush tax cuts for higher incomes that he did not fulfill at all. There is also the apathy of his supporters; his approval rating has dropped from its high at 69% to its current of 43%. This goes along with the fact that communities that really supported him in the 08 election (e.g. young voters, gay voters and minority voters) have been discouraged by his lack luster performance when it comes to issues that are important to them. Lastly, there is Obama’s leadership. I would say that time and again Obama has been politically weak. Even with a super majority in the House and Senate he was only able to get one major piece of legislation that he wanted passed (the so called “Obamacare”). He has been unable to use his political capital to get things, the debt ceiling crisis was a key example of this, you can also look at extending benefits for the unemployed or the 9/11 responders. Obama’s lack of leadership in these areas may come back and hurt him next November.
Republicans
Pros: Mitt Romney has stayed consistently at the second place in the Republican primary since almost day one. Each time an opponent passes him that opponent is dropped like a sack of nails because of various problems. Romney was also Governor of Massachusetts and a successful business man. When it comes to the Republicans he has been able to raise more money than most of the candidates and had performed well in most of the debates.
Cons: Romney signed into law the Massachusetts health care system that “Obamacare” is based off so that may hurt him. Romney has also been back and forth on a lot of issues as pointed out here. The fact that he has been in second place for most of the race shows that his own party is hesitant to elect him.
Pros: Getting a lot of media coverage at this time.
Cons: Numerous extra marital affairs, changed option on some issues recently.
Pros: Current governor of Texas under his administration Texas has gained many jobs. Moderate on immigration.
Cons: Most of the jobs that Texas has gained are low paying. Moderate on immigration is hurting him in the primary. He has made a few gaffs in debates and is not a great public speaker.
Pros: Former CEO of Godfathers Pizza.
Cons: Sexual harassment scandals have been causing issues for him. His 999 plan has been ridiculed. He has minimal foreign policy knowledge or experience.
Pros: Current House member. Tea Party support.
Cons: She is not the sharpest tool in the shed, case in point her bring up that a woman told her that because of Rick Perry’s HPV vaccine mandate her daughter became mentally disabled which Bachmann believed.
Pros: Has stayed consistent on issues over the years. Has a dedicated following.
Cons: No matter where he is in the polls he cannot get good media coverage.
Pros: You know I am not quite sure. He was a Senator so there is that.
Cons: Don’t Goggle his last name. Lack of media coverage.
Pros: Former United States ambassador to China.
Cons: Minimal media coverage.
Overall I would say that it is going to come between Obama and Romney with the victor being determined by the economy. If the economy continues to improve Obama should be okay, if it falters he will not. Romney just has to get the nod from the Republican Party. I think SNL put it best when it comes to Romney. They likened the primary to a bar and the voting public to a guy looking to take some one home with them. Romney is that person that they think they will go home with but they want to take one last lap before making that decision. I think it will play out just like that for the Republican primary.
Tomorrow: Occupy USA
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